THE PROBLEM WITH FASHION TRENDS: why we need to change the fashion forecasting model
Artwork by Geraldine Wharry
Is it time to ditch the commonly used seasonal trend report and transition into a different industry standard? Much like the traditional fashion calendar is being questioned, should we also re-evaluate the corresponding rhythm and cadence of fashion trend reports?
As future trend forecasters who focus on delivering strategic insights for the fashion industry, is being a part of a model that delivers ‘newness’ 2 to 4 times a year (often more), contributing to the loss of our planetary resources? And should this be the main driver for change?
The style industry is a complex system with many moving parts. They are inter dependent on each other, from designing, manufacturing, trade shows, marketing, PR, retail and end users (more commonly referred to as consumers). These tightly connected cogwheels make the seasonal model something that we are bound to. Stepping out of the “fashion machine” can seem almost impossible.
Could we change the format and schedule? Some leaders in the fashion industry are ditching the seasonal catwalk model. The lack of questioning of the seasonal trend report in the niche industry that is fashion trend forecasting seems to point to a fear of change. The cognitive dissonance goes deeper if, as fashion trend forecasters, we are supporting a seasonal system which fuels overconsumption. It is hard to face this. But with being a key player with influence over fashion brands comes great responsibilities.
As fashion forecasters who position themselves as “flag bearers” of change, shouldn’t we be ahead of change?
And what change is this? It is the shift in the current fashion system that points to creating a sustainable industry, an industry replacing a fast fashion and overproduction model with one that is regenerative, slow and follows the circular economy model.
What does that exactly mean? We are still figuring it out.
The first thing to examine is that, as part of our work, the act of gathering design inspiration, mood boards and insights is not the issue. It’s the pace at which we deliver it to our clients and the pace at which we encourage people to consume trends and therefore new products that is problematic.
Secondly, if we are feeling guilty now, let’s remember that ‘Seasonal trends’ were not a bad thing some time ago, they were the gold standard and the backbone of our calendar. Most of us continued with business as usual without an awareness of our impact. So there is no finger pointing here. But things change, societies change. And now, in an ironic twist of semantics, seasonal trends are not in step with the times, just like our climate is ‘out of sync’. Of course we need to design for different weather, but that’s a different utilitarian imperative.
If we face the present reality, we simply don’t have the resources to support a production and a waste cycle that happens two to four times a year, often more and amounts to billions of garments.
I explain the seasonal trend model in my course ‘Forecast trends like a Futurist’ because it is a reality much of our industry follows and my students need to understand that. But I cannot emphasise enough the fact that I encourage my students and community to question this model. And in order to question this you have to understand why the planet is running out of time, resources and species. Extinction is possibly around the corner for us Homo Sapiens too.
For the purpose of this Op-Ed , I won’t go into a large amount of climate change facts, hyperlinks and “climate data”. However if you do want more information, please visit the list of resources I have created at the bottom of this article. All point to the fact that the speed of the seasonal fashion calendar is possibly living on its last legs, due to the climate emergency and the environmental impact of the Fashion Industry.
Perhaps we can’t quite imagine what a non-seasonal fashion forecasting model might look like in the future?
And that is a natural thing, it is very hard to unlearn. But it is here, at the crossroads of slow fashion, a circular cradle to cradle model, repair and reuse, rental, second hand, bio materials and customisation. It also gives a greater emphasis on direct to consumer business models. Perhaps it emphasises on clothing that is solution-based rather than trend-based. Clothing that is modular, can easily be over-dyed, unsold stock that is customised by exciting designers. Perhaps we focus on future garments which turn into soil fertiliser, algae or sugarcane packaging which can go back into our food supply? Imagine that? The solutions are already out there.
Sustainable manufacturing on its own does not justify continuing with the seasonal cadence and fast pace of collections. It is a good start, but sustainable production within the same fashion calendar and high octane rhythm of production ultimately does not change the system.
We need to produce less and this is a complicated equation to solve, but the greatest challenge of our time. What ideas can we come up with to rewrite the story of the fashion industry, its economic foundations and align them again with the great culture of fashion creativity?
I encourage forecasters who are working within the seasonal model to have the conversations and review the very purpose of the ‘seasonal trend report’. The slow fashion model is gaining momentum. Could fashion trends be seen in terms of needs, available resources, new value exchanges, lifestyles and cultural story telling? Rather than seasonal must haves, catwalk reports or hot items.
Sustainability is not a trend. It’s not a choice, it’s not a macro trend, not even a mega trend. Climate change science has been supported by thousands of experts who started warning us as far back as the 1950s.
How could we push harder when it comes to implementing changes that are difficult to adopt? In particular, as forecasters, should we be having discussions with employers and/or clients who have not shifted yet to a slow fashion model. How do we bring up drastic systems change, or even draw a line in the work we do, and who we do it with?
Discussing the uncomfortable toxicity of the seasonal calendar with a client is an uncomfortable conversation with many knots to untie. We have to be able to sit with the uncertainty of what our industry’s future will even look like if we phase out of a seasonal model. And offer solutions for a just transition.
Ultimately, it is that same uncertainty that will help to birth game changing solutions and collaborations. This change could also be our salvation as fashion forecasters. We must stand on the right side of history and admit to ourselves that our seasonal trend format is contributing to a system that is too extractive and damaging to our planet. We’re living on borrowed time if we continue with business as usual.
When we talk about systems change, it’s not seamless. In fact it’s messy, it requires iteration. Let’s get to work on defining the next generation of fashion trends and trend forecasts. For this I encourage diving deeper into Transition design and Biomimicry.
We are all in this together and as an industry insider who has been part of this system for 20 years now, I am also “learning to unlearn” and think in a completely different way. As a witness statement I can share, as I’m sure many of you can, that we did not think about the after life of what we designed, it did not cross our minds 20 years ago. We took for granted the pleasure of always designing new collections. We never worried about over sampling. We experimented, refit styles, dropped styles, travelled the world multiple times a year for product development and “inspiration” shopping. When I look back at the way we worked it’s hard to believe how disconnected we were with the materiality and health of our planet.
This is one of the reasons I evolved into trend forecasting, because the fashion collection cycle just did not make sense to me anymore. But having now focused on future forecasting in the past decade, it’s a similar problem because all is interconnected. In fact, as trend forecasters we have a great role to play as our work sits at the very beginning of a collection and our insights are some of the very first points of call for a fashion design team when they start a collection and make strategic decisions.
This is not an easy process and it took me several years to phase out the seasonal trend report format simply because that was and still is the industry standard. This isn’t a binary issue and when I work with clients, we look to long term shifts and solutions. One way of onboarding brands and manufacturers has been to make a strong business case for shifting to sustainable design and purpose led forecasts.
When I did this with a manufacturing client, I remember the CEO stating “I have children. We need to do this as I worry about the future of our planet too. But I don’t know where to start”. So we decided to start with a “low hanging fruit” which was the packaging in their supply chain.
Within 6 months the client had found a supplier that manufactured goods and packaging using recycled computer parts. Immediately, department store accounts were keen to buy into this. It wasn’t all that had to be done, but it was a start. With another client, the VP explained he was aware of the urgency but needed to discuss this with his head of production. I answered that was a way of delaying the inevitable need to become sustainable and that the strategic decision had to come from the top. It actually wasn’t an uncomfortable conversation, it was an honest dialog where I was steering my client and planting seeds as best as I could.
When I go to speak at seasonal trade shows, it’s with the awareness that I can reach a bigger audience, one that is extremely motivated but often does not know where to start. It is also with a sense of collaboration with trade shows that are focusing on sustainability as the way of the present and the future.
My hope is that the intrinsic circular and cyclical quality of trends will motivate our definition of fashion trend reports.
As part of a body of research on the repetition of trends, 2 years ago I analysed the speed at which yellow from one season to another was changing. My findings showed that for 2 seasons it was the same yellow and that it was the (3rd) season after that the shade significantly changed. This echoed private conversations I had with trend forecasting peers, some specialised in catwalk reports. They told me that from one season to the next the trends felt shoe horned, because they simply were not changing that fast.
Even more the reason to stop and think.
Could it be that we focus more on solutions, updates and trend re-use? Underpinning this shift, “purpose led forecasting” can fuel a new generation of fashion trend reports focused on long term fashion concepts, legacy values and macro trends.
The pandemic if anything has shown us we can create great change in a few months if we need to. So “if not now then when?” as Greta Thunberg would say. Is it time to retire the seasonal or “hot item” trend report? What role does it play in feeding quick to consume clothing that ends in a landfill?
Incorporating planetary imperatives in everything we do, from the trends we put forward to the core systemic model we follow, is the door waiting to be opened wide, full of new possibilities for our future.
| By Geraldine Wharry