Systems Thinking and 6 Essential Habits to Transform Future Foresight
Artwork by Geraldine Wharry using Canva elements
Thought this week
“Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots.”
Welcome to 2025
As I deepen my study of biomimicry and practice of systems thinking, I'm struck by the profound connection with future foresight. The insights I'm gaining from my advanced training with Learn Biomimicry are reinforcing what I've long advocated: the future demands we think in systems, not trends.
While recently developing future foresight training for a global client, I found myself revisiting the HUNT-IDENTIFY-GATHER model I created 12 years ago. This framework, born from the simple question 'How do you do Future Foresight as a Futurist?', inherently embodies both systems thinking and nature's intelligence – a connection that's becoming even more relevant as I prepare for my biomimicry training.
Although I hadn't explicitly stated this 12 years ago in the HUNT-IDENTIFY-GATHER future foresight framework, it was already inspired by how trends may mimic biology using models such as TREND ECOSYSTEMS and TREND MOLECULES.
Through an adaptive systems lens, the deep interconnectedness of the world reveals itself in how we HUNT for signals, using TREND MOLECULES that form patterns within larger TREND ECOSYSTEMS also working within timelines. We aim to see the systems as a whole. This informs the crucial IDENTIFY stage of my framework – where patterns of behaviour are confidently identified before moving into the GATHER stage, where we clearly give direction for, as well as prototype these macro trends.
Whole systems thinking is key because here's the defining paradox:
“A complex adaptive system is a system in which a perfect understanding of the individual parts does not automatically convey a perfect understanding of the whole system’s behaviour.”
What's becoming clear in my biomimicry journey is that this field transcends problem-solving through nature's solutions. It's intimately woven with culture and social sciences, acting as a hidden pattern, incorporating a number of systems frameworks including Spiral Dynamics and the Iceberg model.
As we enter 2025, I invite you to consider the habits of systems thinking (see more below). Whether you're a strategist, designer, or business leader, developing these systems thinking habits are crucial for us as a global community seeking to author preferable futures in a beautifully complex world.
Finally, if you want to dive deeper, my "Forecast Like a Futurist" mastercourse is currently offered at 50% off for a limited time. This is a rare opportunity to learn the HUNT-IDENTIFY-GATHER framework that has guided global brands and hundreds of professionals for over a decade. Join Forecast Like a Futurist here.
Here are 6 habits of a Systems Thinker
I discovered these through Learn Biomimicry. While you can find the full exploration in Leyla Acaroglu's insightful article for Disrupt Design, I'll share a brief summary that highlights why these habits are crucial for future-ready thinking (with some of my own added thoughts) :
1- Sees the Whole (Synthesis)
A systems thinker cultivates the ability to see beyond linear, one-dimensional thinking to grasp the dynamic, interconnected nature of complex challenges. This three-dimensional perspective requires developing both analytical and creative capacities, enabling us to understand how different elements work together as an integrated whole.
My added thoughts: While future foresight excels in analysis, research, strategy and creative thinking, we often fall into the trap of prioritising novelty over circularity and regeneration. Our challenge lies in shifting from a consumption-driven mindset to understanding systems as regenerative cycles, so that we can implement this with our end users and clients.
2- Looks for Connections
Everything in our world exists within a web of interdependencies, where each element relies on others for survival and function. Understanding these connections reveals the constant feedback loops between elements, allowing us to observe and thoughtfully intervene in system dynamics.
My added thoughts: I think we know this is a core skill we have in future foresight. No comment! In fact, we turn this into an obsession.
3- Anticipates Unintended Consequences
Master systems thinkers recognise that interventions in complex systems often create ripple effects far beyond their intended impact. This awareness demands we think beyond immediate (desired) outcomes to consider how our actions might affect the broader system over time, much like understanding how a small change in an ecosystem can transform the entire food chain.
My added thoughts: This is where trend foresight in fashion and design must critically examine its own system and motivations, particularly as we face the dual crises of overconsumption and climate change. Our role as futurists extends beyond forecasting to responsible system intervention.
4- Looks for Change Over Time
Systems thinking requires us to map not just the current state but the evolutionary patterns and behavioural shifts that occur throughout a system's lifecycle. This temporal perspective allows us to identify critical intervention points and develop solutions that consider both immediate impacts and long-term system adaptations.
My added thoughts: This perfectly encapsulates the true nature of trends as temporal phenomena, though it's increasingly complex in our 'Everything everywhere all at once' decade, where time has collapsed and traditional linear progression has given way to simultaneous, overlapping realities.
5- Challenges Mental Models and Assumptions
True systems thinking requires us to examine and question the paradigms that shape our understanding of how systems work. By challenging these deeply held assumptions and mental models, we can identify opportunities for genuine innovation rather than simply applying band-aid solutions to complex challenges.
My added thoughts: The future foresight field specifically in design and fashion, continues to operate within outdated metrics of value and innovation. Our greatest challenge lies in breaking free from short-term, scarcity-based thinking that prioritises speed over systemic, long-term transformation.
6- Finds Leverage
Systems thinkers excel at identifying the precise points within a system where small changes can create significant impacts. This skill requires developing a comprehensive understanding of system dynamics to locate these often-hidden leverage points that can shift the status quo most effectively.
My added thoughts: This represents the critical connection between systems thinking and strategic foresight. While many of us recognise the need for systemic change, our ability to effectively intervene is hampered by an educational legacy that fragments knowledge rather than nurturing holistic understanding. True leverage comes from seeing and engaging with the whole system, and if unable, taking steps to learn how to.
Parting Thoughts
I've never been more energized about moving away from trend-chasing and into understanding and working with the intricate systems that shape our world. Whilst the practice of trend research and identification remains key, as we step into 2025, the convergence of systems thinking and future foresight isn't just theoretical — it's inevitable to work with the complex systems we live in and how we intervene in them.
By Geraldine Wharry
