Hypercycle's Guide to Community-Centric Cultural Strategy and Trendcasting Versus Forecasting
Image courtesy of Gung Ho - part of Hypercycle - available for download here
Thought this week
“Designing a way of living and leading flourishing lives - based on principles conducive to life, is the key mission of our times.”
Welcome to an exclusive look into two key explorations from my recent report, Hypercycle, navigating authenticity in a post-trend world.
We'll examine the importance of community-centric cultural strategies and delve into the distinction between trendcasting and trend forecasting.
Special thanks to 2 voices who inspired parts of these chapters:
Nick Susi, his Objects Of piece Culture is the client. Read his special shout out to Hypercycle!
Marian Park whose piece The Thing About Trend Forecasting portrays the complex tapestry of modern-day future forecasting.
And thank you to my collaborators Gung Ho with whom we tirelessly worked on Hypercycle throughout 2023 and early 2024. As a leading communication agency, Gung Ho builds brands at the intersection of sports, lifestyles and fashion, providing creative direction, PR and communication and talent development, working with brands ranging from Garmin, New Balance, to Speedo, Vivo Barefoot and many more.
Our reports since 2018 provide insights into how we can shape a better fashion industry, culture and community.
Cultural Strategy: Future Trends For and With Community
We work for culture and serve communities.
As cultural producers seeking to engage with cultures and communities, including micro niche movements and influencers, we must form authentic and sensitive relationships over time. The Future is Community as Gung Ho and I outlined in our 2021 report.
This tends to come more naturally to the sports performance and streetwear market segments within fashion, which are inherently and more authentically connected to a lifestyle that goes beyond clothing.
Strategist Nick Susi asks ‘How can we design better systems, a new social contract even, of mutual cultural exchange?’He refers to the internet and globalisation leading us to ‘transculturation’.
Too much of this tapping into culture is exploitative appropriation – withdrawing and redirecting the value of a culture away from the culture itself, for financial gain, without substantive reciprocation, permission and/or compensation, regardless of whether or not that was the original intent. This becomes particularly problematic when there is a power imbalance, where one dominant culture is reinforcing its dominance over another.
- Nick Susi in Culture is the client
Susi also speaks about a ‘Mutual Cultural Exchange’ framework which echoes, perhaps not intentionally, biomimicry language and the principles of nature. Working FOR culture as a principle, we can also look to Nature’s principles and wisdoms. To quote Janine Benyus, founder of the Biomimicry Institute who describes this as ‘Mutualism’.
As a Biologist regeneration is a system that invests in itself for example the leaves fall and feed the soil and fertilise so regeneration is inherently biological and it represents that we need to take care of not just our own needs. Regeneration is about positive effects you will give to the neighbourhood. A mature ecosystem is filled with mutualism - a bee and a flower, a tree and a fungus are in a deep partnership and symbiosis.
- Janine Benyus at the RSA’s 2022 Bicentenary Medal Event
Trendcasting versus Trend Forecasting
Trendcasting has its merits in cultural discourse. However it’s become a go to way for a huge spectrum of content creators to find validation and ride cultural moments. Trendcasting is mostly used as a PR exercise to gain virality off a trending topic, led by “Trendcasters” not forecasters (a take on what Marian Park called Trend Broadcasters ).
The viral nature of trends and the buzzy discourse it creates has impacted the sharing of trend forecasts to become a ‘Trend Broadcast’. Additionally, as social media replaces legacy fashion media sources as a touchpoint for consumers, many media roles have transitioned to include the creating of social media content and being akin to influencers themselves, as they share affiliate links and promote advertising partners in trend content. This is resulting in a niche, but growing community of trend-forecaster-slash-influencer content creators. [...] With influencer culture, fashion was no longer simply worn or promoted, it also needed to perform online via trend names and their trackable hashtag.
- The Thing About Trend Forecasting by Marian Park
This engages with culture on the surface because it is primarily motivated by accruing likes, and overinflates trending topics that are overinflated to begin with. There is no apparent compass as to what guides the conversation, other than the fact everyone else is talking about it. In the process, it micro scams everyone into thinking of trendcasting as a creative act.
The only metric for user success is the accumulation of clicks and follows that one can accrue through ceaseless content creation [...] This is as true for the restless content creators who clearly fit this description as it is for the journalists, politicians, business leaders, and other venerated experts on Twitter whose professional reputations have been inextricably linked to their presence on the platform. Even though they don’t necessarily face the same pressure to post all the time, these experts are still compelled to place bias and clickbait above objectivity in order to keep their followers locked within informational echo chambers.
- Jack Butcher is Rewiring the Social Media Hive Mind on Zora Zine
Tracking what trendcasters share has its value as part of a broader effort to understand the zeitgeist. They are a form of validation. Banking too much on commentary on viral trends, cultural and technological moments in the media can prove short-sighted and even wasteful for marketing teams investing in campaigns that have longevity. It’s already hard enough for brands to be seen as genuine by the public. The deeper risk is the loss of brand authenticity.
We have to be selective within the sea of TikTok hashtags and what we choose to accelerate. Let’s take TikTok’s De-Influencers trend and hashtag. The trend had relevance but died in a matter of weeks. It reflected a need for transparency, a move away from overconsumption and oftentimes humorous product reviews. Now that the hashtag has died what remains?
In 2023, the impact of this in my own foresight consulting practice was 2 commissioned cultural commentary projects on viral trends that were never published. My clients dropped them as the feed had moved on faster than they could hit publish. Overly relying on influencer-propagated trends is not a solid tool for cultural creation.
A Recipe for our Modern Times
By Geraldine Wharry
